Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXUS62 KCHS 141104
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
704 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably hot weather will continue through Monday.

- 2) Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue into early
  next week with a persistent summertime pattern. Isolated
  strong-severe thunderstorm possible today.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston and
  Colleton County coasts during evening high tides tonight and
  Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably hot weather will continue through
Monday.

The strong upper ridge will persist today while a weak surface
trough lingers just inland. Low-level thicknesses support high
temps in the upper 90s over most of the area. The only negating
factor will be scattered mid and upper level clouds this
morning, then pop-up convection in the afternoon. High-res
guidance shows very little convective development through mid-
afternoon which should allow heat indices to steadily climb. WSW
low-level flow will prevent much of a sea breeze from developing
along the GA coast, though it should slowly creep inland over
coastal SC by early to mid afternoon. A corridor of mid to upper
70s dewpoints will again occur in coastal counties this
afternoon, producing a ribbon of 105-110 degree heat indices for
several hours. We issued another Heat Advisory for coastal areas
as a result.

Monday will remain relatively hot, but upper heights will
slightly decrease, and convection/cloud cover may be greater, so
heat indices may remain below advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue into
early next week with a persistent summertime pattern. Isolated
strong-severe thunderstorm possible today.

As the Atlantic surface high pressure lingers south of Bermuda, weak
surface troughing across the southeast will continue the warm and
moist surface conditions into early next week. Aloft, weak zonal
flow will persist today, with the expected afternoon sea-breeze
again leading to shower and thunderstorm chances, though some
shower/storm activity will come from reaching convective
temperatures.

Similar to the past couple of days, 1500-3000 J/kg of
SBCAPE is expected to develop throughout the morning and early
afternoon hours, though bulk shear values continue to remain poor.
DCAPE values are a little lower today, mostly below 1000 J/kg, but
still high enough to lead to an isolated strong/severe wind
gust from a stronger storm. Previous round of convection
allowing models (CAMs) hinted at a more organized storm complex
developing out west of the area, becoming cold pool driven
before pushing into the region this evening, though most recent
guidance has backed off on that. SPC maintains their marginal
risk to cover that possibility, though a strong-severe wind gust
can`t be ruled out from the pulse-storms as mentioned previously.
With precipitable water values remaining near 2 inches (near
the 90th percentile for mid-June) locally heavy rainfall will
continue to be possible today from slow moving/repeating storms.
Probabilities are near 70% for an inch of rain between the I-
95 corridor and the coast, where the sea-breeze will likely be
pinned producing scattered showers/storms, with additional
storms possible from subsequent outflow boundaries.

As we head into the early and middle part of next week, large and
broad mid-level troughing is expected to encompass the eastern half
of the CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold front will approach the
region on Monday, and then move on Tuesday pushing offshore by
Tuesday evening. Convection coverage will likely increase from late
morning near the coastline before expanding more inland in the
afternoons. Highest chances for rain will likely occur along and
west of I-95 corridor where seabreeze interactions maximize, with
additional forcing provided by periodic shortwaves moving through
the trough.

The pattern looks to remain active into the end of the week as broad
troughing continues aloft, with another cold front moving towards
the area by late week/early weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston
and Colleton County coasts during evening high tides tonight and
Monday evening.

Breezy south-southwesterly winds each day along with the upcoming
lunar Perigee (June 14th) and New Moon (June 15th) should result in
elevated tidal departures above 1/2 ft today into early next week,
setting the stage for minor coastal flooding along the Charleston
and Colleton County coasts during evening high tide cycles. The
latest TWL forecast calls for 6.9 - 7.1 ft MLLW in the Charleston
Harbor this evening, and 7.0 - 7.2 ft MLLW are possible during
evening high tides Monday night as astronomical influences peak and
breezy onshore winds persist. Coastal Flood Advisories may again be
needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected to continue into the afternoon
hours, though scattered convection will likely lead to TEMPO
flight restrictions at times, and have thus transitioned the
PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups at CHS/JZI/SAV TAF sites. Strong
damaging winds are the primary threat with the strongest storms
this afternoon. Southwest winds will become breezy early this
afternoon, lingering into the evening hours.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are
possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms into the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect generally south-southwesterly winds with speeds ranging
from 10 to 15 kts as Atlantic high pressure persists across the
local waters. A pre-frontal trough will develop throughout the
day, increasing the surface pressure gradient leading to wind
gusts up into the lower 20s, possibly reaching/exceeding 25 kt
overnight into Monday and overnight into Tuesday. Therefore,
there could be need for Small Craft Advisories for portions of
Monday and Tuesday, though probabilities are currently highest
(near 50%) in the offshore zones from South Santee, SC to
Savannah, GA, dropping towards 10-20% along the coast, so have
held off on issuance. The cold front looks to push offshore by
Tuesday evening, and then rapidly move further away across the
Atlantic. Seas should remain below 6 feet throughout the period.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is forecast for Sunday
along the southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches
given the combination of elevated winds and a lingering south-
southwesterly swell. Moderate rip risk continues for the Charleston
county beaches on Monday given continued similar conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 14
KCHS: 99/2010
KCXM: 97/1981

June 15
KCHS: 98/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 14
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010

June 15
KCHS: 80/2010

June 18
KCHS: 78/2015

June 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/JRL